Enhancing physically-based flood forecasts through fusion of long short-term memory neural network with unscented Kalman filter

Abstract

Accurate flood forecasts are vital for reservoir operation and flood prevention. The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) excels in improving physically-based models flood forecasting but depends on precise noise estimation, posing challenges in complex uncertainty quantification. In this study, we propose a novel approach, the deep fusion of a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and unscented Kalman filter (LSTM-UKF), to enhance flood forecasts by adaptively updating hydrological model states. The LSTM efficiently learns noise-related information from the estimation of Kalman Gain, obviating the need for intricate uncertainty recognition and approximation. For comparative analysis, the LSTM-UKF and UKF filters are constructed to correct Xinanjiang (XAJ) hydrological model states. Both filters utilize streamflow observations to update the XAJ model states and facilitate its flood forecasting performance. Comprehensive evaluations were conducted using 3-hourly meteor-hydrological sequences from the Jianxi and Tianyi basins in China, focusing on the accuracy, stability, and reliability of multi-step-ahead flood forecasts. Results indicate that the LSTM-UKF performs superior to the UKF, with maximal advancements in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) by 9.1%, maximal reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) by 18.7%, and maximal decrease in mean absolute error (MAE) by 22.6%. Additionally, the LSTM-UKF exhibits better robustness and stability in non-stationary flood events. The proposed LSTM-UKF mitigates the over-reliance on noise estimates, reducing systematic biases and error accumulation in state estimates and enhancing hydrological model generalizability in operational flood prevention platforms and systems.