Enhancing land use planning through integrating landscape analysis and flood inundation prediction Bekasi City’s in 2030

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Floods pose a significant threat, exceeding other natural disasters in economic and social impacts (Agrawal et al. 2020; Zuo et al. 2023; Kurata et al. 2023). Urbanization exacerbates this risk by altering hydrology and increasing flood exposure due to population growth in floodplains (Mustafa et al. 2018; Cao et al. 2022). Climate change further intensifies this, potentially raising the number of flood-prone people by 2030 (Nguyen et al. 2021; Tellman et al. 2021; Keenan-Jones 2023). Disaster mitigation, particularly spatial planning for risk reduction, is crucial for sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing areas. Current plans often rely solely on static land-use data, neglecting dynamic landscape changes. This study utilizes land-use data (Landsat 8 OLI, 2014–2022) and landscape metrics to simulate 2030 flood risk under urban expansion. We show increased urbanization leads to wider and deeper floods due to land-use changes and fragmentation. Spatial planning needs to consider these dynamics, not just elevation. Our model demonstrates that expanding residential and non-residential areas by 5.54% and 1.47% increases flood-prone areas by 6.5% and 36.9%, respectively. This information can inform policymakers in developing more robust spatial planning for flood mitigation.