Abstract
Aim of the study: To present a new spatiotemporal model for Pinus pinea L. annual cone production with validity for Spanish Northen Plateau and Central Range regions. The new model aims to deal with detected deficiencies in previous models: temporal shortage, overestimation of cone production on recent years, incompatibility with data from National Forest Inventory, difficulty for upscaling and ignorance of the inhibitory process due to resource depletion.Area of study: Spanish Northern Plateau and Central Range regions, covering an area where stone pine occupies more than 90,000 haMaterial and methods: Fitting data set include 190 plots and more than 1000 trees were cone production has been annually collected from 1996 to 2014. Models were fitted independently for each region, by means of zero-inflated log normal techniques. Validation of the models was carried out over the annual series of cone production at forest scale.Results: The spatial and temporal factors influencing cone production are similar in both regions, thus the main regional differences in cone yield are related with differences in the phenological timing, the intensity of the influent factors and forest intrinsic conditions. A significant inhibition of floral induction by resource depletion was detected and included into the model. Upscaling the model results in accurate prediction at forest scale. Research highlights: [1] The new model for annual cone production surpass the detected deficiencies of previous models, accurately predicting recent decay in cone production; [2] Regional differences in cone production are due to phenological and seasonal climatic differences rather than to between provenances genetic differencesKeywords: zero-inflated models; pine nut; conelet losses; Leptoglossus occidentalis; forest upscaling.
Highlights
Sustainable management of the forests require accurate tools for forecasting the different ecosystems services provided under different management schedules, and different environmental and economical scenarios
The spatial and temporal factors influencing cone production are similar in both regions, the main regional differences in cone yield are related with differences in the phenological timing, the intensity of the influent factors and forest intrinsic conditions
Given the huge differences observed in individual tree cone production between NP and case of forest 75 (CR), the ecological differences observed among the two analyzed regions, and the different length of the analyzed series, we proposed to fit independent ZILN models for each region
Summary
Sustainable management of the forests require accurate tools for forecasting the different ecosystems services provided under different management schedules, and different environmental and economical scenarios. While growth and timber production models have experienced a huge advance in the last years for the main part of the Mediterranean forest species Bravo et al, 2011), the development of models focusing on non-wood forest products has not been so intense (Calama et al, 2010). Important research has been recently carried out on some nonwood products as mushrooms (Bonet et al, 2010), cork (Sánchez-González et al, 2007; Vázquez-Piqué & Pereira, 2008) and especially on pine nuts. Pine nuts from stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) constitute the most important edible seed and one of the most important non-wood products obtained from the Medi terranean forests. Pine nuts are a high valuable product, with current retail prices exceeding 100 €/kg, and with an expanding market out of the region.
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