Enhanced b-value time-series calculation method using data-driven approach

Abstract

SUMMARY The temporal evolution analysis of b-value of the magnitude–frequency distribution (MFD) is essential for seismic risk analysis. However, ensuring the accuracy and rationality of these analyses depends on various factors, including data quality, data selection and the appropriate computation period partitioning. This study extends the data-driven b-value time-series calculation method, TbDD-BIC, by exploring different model selection techniques. To evaluate the method's effectiveness, we conducted assessments using both synthetic earthquake catalogues and actual seismic data. Our results indicate that selecting a proportion of optimal models (e.g. 5 per cent of the total number of models) using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and computing the ensemble median yields accurate b0-values of the synthetic earthquake catalogue. This proposed method offers objective calculation rules and precise identification of abrupt b-value changes, enhancing seismicity simulation and seismic hazard analysis.