Abstract
The purpose of this study is to critically assess the relationship between international trade and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to identify the key driving forces in Africa at different income levels. In examining the causal effects of net trade on CO2 emission loads from 1960 to 2012 with a number of other anthropogenic driving forces, we employed a panel dataset, an augmented STIRPATN models and techniques of Generalised Least Squares to determine the quantitative magnitude impacts of net trade on CO2 emissions. The results suggest that CO2 emissions have statistical significant impact on net trade, population size, manufacturing sector and services sector. The final consumption expenditure (annual growth) cannot be used to explain CO2 emission loads in Africa, as it is not statistically significant at all in different income levels. The estimated results indicate that, the average effect of net trade over CO2 emissions, when the net trade changes across time and between countries increases by 1%, CO2 emissions increases by about 1.02 and 2.24% for low income countries and middle income countries, respectively, when all the other predictors are constant. Key words: International trade, population size, carbon dioxide emissions, net trade.
Highlights
Previous studies see the role of international trade as crucial to the explanation of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
The estimated results indicate that the average effect of net trade over CO2 emissions, when the net trade changes across time and between countries increases by 1%, CO2 emissions increases by about 1.02 and 2.24% for Lower Income Countries in Africa (LICA) and Lower Middle Income Countries in Africa (LMICA), respectively, when all other predictors are constant
The average effect of population size over carbon dioxide emissions, when the population size changes across time and between countries increases by 1%, CO2 emissions increases by about 0.74% for low income countries in Africa (LICA), and reduces CO2 emissions by about 0.51% for Upper Income Countries in Africa (UICA) respectively, holding all other predictors constant
Summary
Previous studies see the role of international trade as crucial to the explanation of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The population trends in Africa have fuelled global concern, given its finite resources which engender increasing international trade relationship to complement the available resources within each member countries. The continent has witnessed an explosive growth in human population and a steep increase in resource depletion and environmental problems. These trends have accelerated since 1960, fuelling the debate on the relationship between trade, population and environment impacts (Panayotou, 2000a, b).
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