English

Elodie Blanc

doi:10.5897/jdae12.145

Abstract

  This study estimates the impact of climate change on supply for the four most common crops (millet, maize, sorghum and cassava) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The analysis relates crop supply, measured as cropped area, to weather, climate and prices. Crop supply functions are estimated using an error correction model (ECM) built on panel data. Crop supply through 2100 is predicted by combining estimates from the panel data analysis with climate change predictions from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). Results indicate climate change impacts on crop supplies ranging from -20 to +133% compared to a scenario of no climate change.   Key words: Food crop supply, climate change, error correction model.

Highlights

Food crop production is essential in developing countries, especially sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where agriculture is the main source of food and livelihood (Badiane and Delgado, 1995)
The analysis reveals that farmers respond to export crop prices
Substitution effects between food crops and export crops are found for sorghum in less favorable agricultural conditions (LFAC) countries

Summary

Introduction

Food crop production is essential in developing countries, especially sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where agriculture is the main source of food and livelihood (Badiane and Delgado, 1995). Crop supply analyses generally estimate the responsiveness of agricultural production to price incentives. In SSA, where most of the population is rural and depends on domestic food crop production for subsistence, the influence of price changes on production decisions is disputable. The small number of studies focusing on food crops concludes that price changes have a small effect on supply decisions (McKay et al, 1998; Rahji et al, 2008). Other factors, such as weather and climate, may be more important in determining supply in developing countries

Methods

Results

Conclusion