Abstract
This study estimates of the impact of climate change on yields for the four most commonly grown crops (millet, maize, sorghum and cassava) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A panel data approach is used to relate yields to standard weather variables, such as temperature and precipitation, and sophisticated weather measures, such as evapotranspiration and the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The model is estimated using data for the period 1961-2002 for 37 countries. Crop yields through 2100 are predicted by combining estimates from the panel analysis with climate change predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). Each GCM is simulated under a range of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) assumptions. Relative to a case without climate change, yield changes in 2100 are near zero for cassava and range from –19% to +6% for maize, from –38% to –13% for millet and from –47% to –7% for sorghum under alternative climate change scenarios.
Highlights
Climate change is an important environmental, social and economic issue
The null hypothesis of the presence of a unit root is rejected for most first-differenced variables
The analysis revealed that the impact of precipitation on crop yields depends on national agricultural conditions
Summary
Climate change is an important environmental, social and economic issue. It threatens the achievement of Millennium Development Goals aimed at poverty and hunger reduction, health improvement and environmental sustainability [1]. Such issues are important for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where many people depend on agriculture for subsistence and incomes [2]. The impact of climate change on crop yields is a major concern in this region. Two main techniques are used to evaluate the effect of climate change on yields: 1) crop growth models and 2) regression analyses. Crop growth models require daily weather data and are calibrated under experimental conditions
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