Abstract
This study estimated the impact of climate change in the period 2040-2069 on six grasses potential areas in three altitudinal zones of México: 0 to1200 m (lowlands), 1200 to 2200 m (midlands) and >2200 m (highlands). Topography, soil and climate variables were used to depict potential areas. Climate data for 1961-1990 (reference climatology) and 2040-2069 were obtained from the WorldClim Earth System Grid Portal and were worked in 2.5 arc minutes raster images in the Idrisi Selva System. For the 2040-2069 climatology, three GCMs were considered: MPIM-ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 (medres) and UKMO_HADCM3, under A2 emissions scenario. The results showed that most of the potential areas with optimal conditions for grasses will remain in lowlands, however the surface with these conditions will tend to decrease for Cenchrus ciliaris, Andropogon gayanus and Brachiaria mutica at a rate of 35-49%, 2-63% and 15-30%, respectively, which will affect mostly to C. ciliaris, since it will tend to migrate to midlands. Optimal conditions surface for C. gayana and C. dactylon will not change in lowlands, but will increase in midlands 63-103% and 74-90%, respectively. For H. rufa, the optimum conditions surface will rise 5-17% in lowlands and 391-449% in midlands. In highlands, potential areas for grasses were estimated majorly as suboptimal, however with climate change C. ciliaris, C. gayana and C. dactylon will increase their optimal conditions surface in highlands. For A. gayanus, B. mutica and H. rufa no optimal conditions surface was determined in highlands neither in the reference climatology nor in the future climatologies. Key words: Climate change and forage grasses; Climate change and altitudinal zones; Tropical and subtropical grasses.
Highlights
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC), CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, in preindustrial times were of 600 gigatons (Gt); concentrations currently are of 800 Gt and the expected increment in CO2 atmosphere would be closer to 1,000 Gt by 2050 (IPCC, 2007)
The results showed that most of the potential areas with optimal conditions for grasses will remain in lowlands, the surface with these conditions will tend to decrease for Cenchrus ciliaris, Andropogon gayanus and Brachiaria mutica at a rate of 3549%, 2-63% and 15-30%, respectively, which will affect mostly to C. ciliaris, since it will tend to migrate to midlands
Potential areas were determined using a multi-criterion analysis in Idrisi Selva system and considering a qualitative scheme of three categories: areas with optimal agroecological conditions (Op), areas with suboptimal agroecological conditions (Sp) and areas with marginal agroecological conditions (Mg). They were assumed to have optimal agroecological conditions, the areas in which all environmental factors of analysis were at an optimum level for forage species; suboptimal were classified as those areas in which at least one variable of diagnosis was found in non-optimal conditions for growing;
Summary
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC), CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, in preindustrial times were of 600 gigatons (Gt); concentrations currently are of 800 Gt and the expected increment in CO2 atmosphere would be closer to 1,000 Gt by 2050 (IPCC, 2007). As a result of increment in greenhouse gases on the atmosphere, an increment in temperature is produced, which is unambiguous (Trenberth et al, 2007); and drying of many regions through increased evaporation is induced (Wang, 2005; Woodhouse et al., 2010), while the maturity crop process is accelerated, reducing leaf area duration and the total water requirement of crop maturity (Hatfield et al, 2011; Ojeda et al, 2011).These changes in climatic patterns, will cause profound effects on terrestrial plant growth and productivity in the near future (Attipalli et al, 2010), and, defining the geographical potential distribution on yield losses of crops, is transcendental as well as to develop mitigation strategies (Deryng et al, 2011; Justin et al., 2012)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
