Energy-Water-Carbon Nexus Optimization for the Path of Achieving Carbon Emission Peak in China Considering Multiple Uncertainties: A Case Study in Inner Mongolia

Yuan Liu,Mingxin Guo,Jian Han,Qinliang Tan

doi:10.3390/en14041067

Abstract

The Chinese government has launched a guideline for carbon emissions up to the peak (CEUP) in the 2030 target. The electric power sector has to make its own contributions to the national CO2 emissions mitigation target. In this study, a patron–client interactive optimized (PCIO) model is proposed to investigate the regional energy–water–carbon nexus optimization under the policy background of the CEUP target. Inner Mongolia, the largest energy base in China, which is also facing the prominent contradiction including the energy production and serious environmental problems, is chosen as a case study. Multiple uncertainties, including the fuel price uncertainty and output of the wind and solar power, are considered to make the optimization process more realistic. Results show that coal-fired power will gradually be substituted by the gas, wind, and solar power in Inner Mongolia to reach the CEUP target. The CO2 capture and storage technology and air-cooling systems will play important roles, especially under the strict water policy scenario. However, the achievement of the CEUP and water-saving target will be at the expense of high system costs. The PCIO model makes it possible for the decision-maker to make flexible strategies to balance the CEUP target and saving system costs. The results have demonstrated the validity of the PCIO model in addressing the hierarchical programming problems.

Highlights

China has announced to the world that in 2030, carbon emissions will reach their peak so that it can make effective contributions to the global CO2 emissions target
The variation of the natural gas price showed different performances before and after 2022. It showed that from 2015 to 2022, the natural gas price had an apparent increasing trend, while it showed fluctuations after 2022 until 2030, which means that uncertainty during the prediction process made it difficult to forecast the nature gas price after 2022
It indicates that the air-cooling system would play the most important role when the strict water withdrawals policy is executed in Inner Mongolia, especially when the power demand level was medium and high, it increased by 77.53% and 82.17% when t=1, 69.50% and 71.56% when t=2 and 64.74% and 57.53% when t=3 for the coal-fired power

Summary

Introduction

China has announced to the world that in 2030, carbon emissions will reach their peak so that it can make effective contributions to the global CO2 emissions target. China’s national pledge to reduce carbon emissions, which will further help China switch the extensive economy mode to the low-carbon economy mode. To achieve this target, all sectors should assume responsibility and undertake the corresponding systematic reduction in CO2 emissions. The electric power industry in China needs to make great efforts to optimize its structure further and improve the energy efficiency so that the CO2 emissions up to the peak (CEUP) target could be achieved as scheduled

Methods

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Discussion

Conclusion