Energy transition in a lockdown: An analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on changes in electricity demand in Lagos Nigeria

Abstract

In this study, we analyse the role of forced lockdowns on electricity consumption behaviour and its effect on momentary transition in electricity use. Electricity consumption data for residential, commercial and industrial consumers within the Lagos metropolis representing 259 electrical feeder locations were collected and analysed under three scenarios: first, we analyse a business-as-usual scenario without a lockdown; secondly, we analyse the case of a partial lockdown; and finally, we analyse the case of a total lockdown. The study revealed that aside government announcement of the lockdown, certain social practices triggered changes in electricity consumption and use leading to momentary energy transition. Within the residential sector, increased cooking, home laundry, showering, and some professional practices that moved to the homes impacted on higher electricity consumption. Reduced manufacturing practices limited to those involved in food, personal care and pharmaceutical products led to a reduction in electricity use within the industrial sector, while reduced electricity use in the commercial sector was triggered mainly by a scaling down of trading services to essentials. The study concludes by highlighting the impact of changes in electricity demand and consumption under these scenarios and its implications for energy transition and electricity planning.