Abstract

Abstract : This research develops a methodology and software assessment tool to implement selected methods and principles of multicriteria analysis and risk analysis for selecting among energy security investments and strategies. The approach enables decision makers to address a broad and varying range of emergent conditions in the energy environment including mission criticality, regulatory and market forces, disruption of service, grid failure, infrastructure deterioration, and others. With a set of performance criteria, the multicriteria methodology complements and improves on a single economics-based metric for energy investment and security. The methodology provides the relevant risk and opportunity tradeoffs to compare various energy security investments and strategies. The process involves identifying (i) multiple criteria and requirements describing energy security, (ii) several energy security design alternatives for comparison, and (iii) emergent conditions that present a risk or opportunity to investment alternatives. The approach is demonstrated in a case study that describes the implementation of the methodology at the Area 300 Compound at Ft. Belvoir.

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