Energy-saving and CO2 reduction strategies for new energy vehicles based on the integration approach of voluntary advocacy and system dynamics.

Abstract

The low-carbon development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is critical to achieving the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. As such, combining gray model theory with system dynamics (SD-GM) and based on the bidirectional-cycle prediction theory, we propose a NEV annual average mileage algorithm considering the impact of the epidemic in China, taking private cars as an example. Then, combining a voluntary advocacy strategy (VA) with the SD-GM theory (VA-SD-GM integration), we establish an energy-saving and carbon-reduction management model. To evaluate the proposed algorithm, we performed a dynamic simulation. The results indicate that the enhanced green scenario enabled significant energy-saving and CO2 reduction performance but would cause side effects in the long term. Compared with the enhanced green scenario, the linkage mode reduced the impact of parking space tension, the number of NEV trips, and the intensification of traffic congestion by approximately 33%, 50%, and 34%, respectively. It effectively suppressed the continuous increase in side effects and had a synergistic effect of carbon reduction, energy conservation, congestion alleviation, and side-effect reduction. The study provides a theoretical basis for optimizing the energy-saving and CO2 reduction path of NEVs.