Abstract
China’s electricity sector mainly relies on coal-fired thermal generation, thus resulting that nearly 50% of China’s total CO2 emissions coming from the electricity sector. This study focuses on the provincial CO2 emissions from China’s thermal electricity generation. Methodologically, Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA), facilitated by the Shapley Index, is applied to discover the driving factors behind CO2 emission changes at the provincial level. In addition, the Slack-based Model (SBM) is used to identify which provincial power grids should be allocated with a higher (lower) CO2 reduction burden. The IDA results indicate that economic activity pushed the CO2 emissions up in all 30 provincial power grids, excluding Beijing and Shanghai; the carbon factor contributed to a decrease in the CO2 emissions in all 30 provincial power grids, with the exception of Jilin, Guangdong, and Ningxia; though the effect of energy intensity varied across the 30 provinces, it played a significant role in the mitigation of CO2 emissions in Beijing, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Shanghai, Anhui, and Sichuan. According to the SBM results, the lowest carbon shadow prices are observed in Yunnan, Shanghai, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Qinghai, Guizhou, Anhui, and Ningxia. These provincial power grids, thus, should face higher mitigation targets for CO2 emissions from thermal electricity generation.
Highlights
There is a global consensus that climate change is becoming a serious issue to be addressed in the21st century [1,2]
Shanghai and Beijing are the only two power grids that have negative growth rates of −3.29% and −0.46%. These results indicate that the latter two provincial power grids are good-performing ones in regards to emissions reduction in the thermal electricity sector
Corresponding to the convergences of efficiency scores, the analysis shows that the 30 provincial power grids managed to secure the convergence in terms of shadow prices, yet provincial grids managed secure the in terms of shadow yet this process that the 30 power provincial power gridstomanaged toconvergence secure the convergence in termsprices, of shadow prices, yet this process has been subdued since 2010
Summary
There is a global consensus that climate change is becoming a serious issue to be addressed in the21st century [1,2]. There is a global consensus that climate change is becoming a serious issue to be addressed in the. In terms of the Fifth Assessment Report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), CO2 emission is considered as the most important cause of climate change, and the global concentration of CO2 reached a record high in 2014. As for China, since its ‘Reform and Opening-up’ program initiated in the late 1970s, China’s economy has enjoyed a long-term rapid development which has resulted in a gradual upward trend in CO2 emissions. Though China had signed the Kyoto Protocol, China surpassed the United States and became the largest CO2 emitter in the world in 2006 [3]. The International Energy Agency estimated that China’s CO2 emissions will exceed 11 billion tons in 2030 if no indispensable reduction measures are taken.
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