Decomposition analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in China's regional thermal electricity generation, 2000–2020

Abstract

A major share of China's total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is from the electric power sector. In 2010, almost 40% of all CO2 emissions in China were from this sector. This is because the country predominantly depends on thermal electricity generation to meet its power requirement. This study analyses the CO2 emissions from thermal electricity generation in China between 2000 and 2012 at the regional grid level. Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index methodology is employed to identify the factors that influence changes in CO2 emissions over time. This study also predicts China's energy consumption and CO2 emissions patterns between 2013 and 2020, forecasting rates of increase in energy consumption across six regional grids from 0.9% to 9.7%. CO2 emissions related to thermal electricity generation increased from 981.33 million tons (Mt) in 2000 to 3342.79 Mt in 2012, which is an annual growth rate of 10.75%. These increases are not aligned with China's commitments on reducing emissions to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. China's CO2 emissions are forecasted to increase to 5596 Mt by 2020 if the current increasing trends is not effectively curbed after 2012.