Abstract
China’s “Belt & Road Initiative” has been proposed for several years, which has stimulated the economic and financial development of the countries alongside the “Belt & Road”. For a world’s leading energy consuming country, China tries to secure the energy supply from the resource-rich countries via oversea energy investment. In this paper, we propose a sequence to sequence (seq2seq) model to evaluate the energy investment risk of 50 countries alongside the “Belt & Road Initiative”. Specifically, we first build an indicator system mainly containing six factors. Then we adopt Bi-long-short term memory (Bi-LSTM) as encoder to process the historical statistics. Afterward, we use self-attention mechanism to assign the weights on the six factors of the indicator system. Finally we use a hierarchical convolution neural network decoder to generate the assessment results. Our findings indicate that resource potential and Chinese factor are the most important indicators. And through our thorough investigation, we find that Russia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Indonesia are the most recommended target countries for China’s oversea energy investment.
Highlights
We evaluate the energy investment risk based on the indicator and framework mentioned above among 50 countries which lie in the “Belt & Road initiative”
We introduce overall six indicators to be considered to evaluate the investment risk, that is, investment environment, political, economic, environment constraint, resource and Chinese factor. [According to International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), it evaluates the national risk via three dimensions, i.e., investment environment, political risk and economic foundation, so we choose them as indicators
As the world-leading energy-consuming country, it is urgent for China to secure the energy safety via oversea energy investment
Summary
We first introduce the experiment data statistics and analyze the national energy investment risk evaluation and provide some investment suggestions for policy makers of China.Weight of dimensionsWeight of indicators Data StatisticsWe investigate 50 countries alongside the China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” from 2013 to 2019. Those 50 nations alongside the “Belt and Road Initiative” make up about 41.58% population of the whole world, with only 17.15% GDP of the world, which further proves that those nations are developing countries while foreign investments are needed to boost their economy. The energy refinement capacity only makes up 30.99% of the world, which means that the potential energy investment in those countries are quite promising
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