Abstract
In 2013, China proposed the “Belt & Road Initiative” which aims to invest the “Belt & Road” countries so as to help them develop their infrastructure and economy. China consumes the largest part of fossil energy of the whole world, so it is China’s priority to consider its energy supplying security. Therefore, it becomes urgent for China to invest the “Belt & Road” countries’ energy facilities. There comes a question: how to evaluate the overseas energy investment risk? To answer this question, this paper proposes a deep learning method to assess such risk of the 50 “Belt & Road” countries. Specifically, this paper first proposes an indicator system in which 6 main factors are separated into 36 sub-factors. This paper makes use of hierarchical convolution neural networks (CNN) to encode the historical statistics. The hierarchical structure could help CNN handle the long historical statistics more effectively and efficiently. Afterward, this paper leverages the self-attention layer to calculate the weights of each sub-factor. It could be observed that the resource potential is the most important indicator, while “years of China’s diplomatic relations” is the most important sub-indicator. Finally, we use a conditional random field (CRF) layer and softmax layer to compute the assessment scores of each country. Based on the experimental results, this paper suggests Russia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan to be China’s most reliable choices for energy investment.
Highlights
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations
Many researchers conducted various studies based on this huge project, for example, the influence that the project imposing on China [1], financial measures for environmental degradation [2], macroeconomic-level influence [3], and efficiency of energy [4]
Inspired by the above introduced factors, this paper proposes a new indicator system which considers the energy investment risk on both macro-level and micro-level
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. In 2003, China proposed the “the Silk Road Economic Belt” and “21st century maritime. Silk Road”, known as “Belt & Road initiative” English/index.htm (accessed on 1 September 2020)), aiming to invest those countries along the “Belt & Road”, helping them establish the infrastructure and foster the economic market. China could share its own developing achievements with those countries, while securing its global financial and economic system. Many researchers conducted various studies based on this huge project, for example, the influence that the project imposing on China [1], financial measures for environmental degradation [2], macroeconomic-level influence [3], and efficiency of energy [4]
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