Energy futures of representative Swiss communities under the influence of urban development, building retrofit, and climate change

Abstract

Reducing energy demand in buildings is an integral part of many climate change mitigation strategies. Yet, the prospected development of communities is often overlooked when estimating future energy demand. Here, we investigate the future energy demand in representative Swiss communities, considering climate change projections, building retrofit and urban development. Following a scenario-based approach we model urban, suburban and rural community archetypes under changing boundary conditions and different time scales using the City Energy Analyst an open-source computational framework. The results demonstrate that the future energy demand of Swiss communities is highly dependant on their development trajectories regarding population growth, occupant density and building use-types. For the urban archetype, the most significant result is the increase of annual space cooling which by 2060 could be comparable to space heating. For the sub-urban, increases in energy demand due to urban development were observed despite retrofit measures, whereas the rural archetype displays high space heating demand across all scenarios. Consequently, predictions for future energy demand at the community scale without considering urban development trajectories are likely to be incomplete. The results demonstrate the relevance of increasing the modelling scale from national to community scale to support decision making on different levels of governance.