Energy Demand Forecasting by Thermodynamic Analysis of Energy Consumed Processes

Abstract

The article presents a method of energy demand forecasting by using thermodynamic analysis of processes in the energy consumption sphere. Energy demand of a branch is determined on the base of modeling the energy consumption of an individual process by its material and energy balances. It makes it possible to take into account improvement of existing processes, change of technologies and introduction of energy conservation measures when the specific energy consumption for the product is determined for short- and mid-term forecasting. It is suggested to apply forecasting of energy and exergy efficiencies of technologies by long-term forecasting of energy demand. The complete energy balance method and concepts of the chemical energy and exergy of feedstock, ideal and idealized analogues of real processes, minimum necessary and limiting energy and work consumption are used.