ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FOR TURKEY'S TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN 2030

Abstract

Aim: Energy consumption in Turkey is increasing due to population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, increasing consumption and the widespread use of technological products. In Turkey, which imports more than half of its energy needs, in addition to meeting the energy need from domestic and renewable resources, energy efficiency studies in sectors with high energy consumption are of great importance. When the sectors with high energy consumption are examined, it is seen that the transportation sector has a high rate of 25%. By estimating how much energy Turkey, which is dependent on foreign energy, will consume in which sector in the coming years, it will guide the correct planning of renewable energy resources investments and energy efficiency studies. Method: The amount of energy to be consumed in the transportation sector until 2030 has been estimated by using the data on population, GDP and motor vehicle amounts and final energy consumption amounts in the transportation sector, using machine learning algorithms; Random forest, Support vector machine and artificial neural networks (ANN) methods. Results: As a result of the analysis, it was seen that the ANN method gave the most appropriate result for this study. The average training and test regression values obtained by ANN for five cross validations were 0.9968 ± 0.0019 and 0.9978 ± 0.0013, respectively. As a result of the estimation, it was calculated that 31.391 thousand Tons of Oil Equivalent (TOE) of energy will be consumed in the transportation sector in 2030. Conclusion: In Turkey, where energy consumption in the transportation sector is increasing every year and Turkey is a country that meets its energy needs from imported sources, shifting a significant portion of freight and passenger transportation in road transportation, which is used intensively among transportation types, to rail and maritime transportation, where energy consumption is more efficient, will reduce energy consumption. In addition, energy efficiency studies in every sector will contribute to the national economy. Reduced energy consumption will also reduce CO2 emissions.