Abstract
Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO2 emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO2 emission trends for Iran over 2000–2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO2 emissions in 2025 will reach 985million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO2 emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO2 emission outlines.
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