Energy and Environmental Impact of the Promotion of Battery Electric Vehicles in the Context of Banning Gasoline Vehicle Sales

Abstract

This study quantitively estimates the energy and environmental impacts of China’s promotion of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the context of banning the sale of gasoline vehicles (GVs). Combining the population ecological growth model and the life cycle assessment method, the potential of BEVs promotion in reducing fossil energy (FE) consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under different timings of banning GV sales was dynamically simulated and analyzed. The results show that the current life cycle FE consumption and GHG emissions of BEVs are approximately 40.1% and 26.6% lower than those of GVs, respectively. Based on the development of automobile technology and the national energy plan, replacing GVs with BEVs can reduce GHG emissions and FE consumption by up to 43.61–55.81% and 46.33–55.45%, respectively. Compared with the scenario without BEV promotion, if sales of GVs in China are banned between 2040 and 2060, the point at which the carbon peak of the automobile market will be reached will be advanced by approximately two years, and the corresponding carbon peak value will be reduced by approximately 13.58–28.79 million tons of CO2-eq (MtCO2e). In addition, the annual FE savings and GHG emission reductions will reach approximately 2.99–6.35 million TJ and 276.54–488.77 MtCO2e by 2050. This research work will not only help authorities, managers, and the public to better understand the environmental and energy impacts of promoting new energy vehicles, but also provide a forward-looking reference for formulating comprehensive, systematic, and reasonable industrial planning to better promote a green and sustainable transformation of the automotive sector and solve the relevant energy and environmental problems.