Abstract

Abstract. Simulating pollen concentrations with numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems requires a parameterization for pollen emission. We have developed a parameterization that is adaptable for different plant species. Both biological and physical processes of pollen emission are taken into account by parameterizing emission as a two-step process: (1) the release of the pollen from the flowers, and (2) their entrainment into the atmosphere. Key factors influencing emission are temperature, relative humidity, the turbulent kinetic energy and precipitation. We have simulated the birch pollen season of 2012 using the NWP system COSMO-ART (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling – Aerosols and Reactive Trace Gases), both with a parameterization already present in the model and with our new parameterization EMPOL. The statistical results show that the performance of the model can be enhanced by using EMPOL.

Highlights

  • A relatively high proportion of the population in industrialized countries suffer from pollen allergies

  • The diurnal cycle of pollen emission is driven by the current meteorological conditions that lead to a rupture of the anthers and to the entrainment of the pollen grains into the atmosphere

  • The class “low pollen load” scores worst. This can partly be explained by the fact that the higher pollen classes cover a wider range of pollen concentrations: e.g., for the “very strong” pollen class, the concentration needs to be anything above 300 pollen per cubic meter, whereas for the class “low” the concentration needs to be below 10 pollen www.geosci-model-dev.net/6/1961/2013/

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Summary

Introduction

A relatively high proportion of the population in industrialized countries suffer from pollen allergies. 2. The diurnal cycle of pollen emission is driven by the current meteorological conditions that lead to a rupture of the anthers (the release of pollen grains from the flowers) and to the entrainment of the pollen grains into the atmosphere. The diurnal cycle of pollen emission is driven by the current meteorological conditions that lead to a rupture of the anthers (the release of pollen grains from the flowers) and to the entrainment of the pollen grains into the atmosphere This process happens in a time frame of seconds to hours. – pollen presentation: making the pollen grains available for entrainment into the atmosphere This is the result of the combined processes of anthesis and pollen release. – pollen concentration: the concentration of airborne pollen, given in number of pollen grains per cubic meter of air

The NWP model system COSMO-ART
Available emission parameterizations
Description of the pollen season
Meteorological influences
Other features
Development of an emission parameterization for pollen grains
Basic concepts
Tuning of the emission parameterization
Testing the new parameterization
Setup of the simulations
Comparison to pollen measurements
Statistical measures
Results regarding pollen classes
Results regarding pollen concentrations
Sensitivity to mast years
Summary and conclusions
Full Text
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