Abstract
Water quality models are useful tools to understand and mitigate eutrophication processes. However, gaining access to high-resolution data and fitting models to local conditions can interfere with their implementation. This paper analyzes whether it is possible to create a spatial model of nutrient water level at a local scale that is applicable in different geophysical and land-use conditions. The total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were modeled by integrating Geographical Information Systems, Remote Sensing, and Generalized Additive and Land-Use Changes Modeling. The research was based on two case studies, which included 204 drainage basins, with nutrient and limnological data collected during two seasons. The models performed well under local conditions, with small errors calculated from the independent samples. The recorded and predicted concentrations of nutrients indicated a significant risk of water eutrophication in both areas, showing the impact of agricultural intensification and population growth on water quality. The models are a contribution to the sustainable land-use planning process, which can help to prevent or promote land-use transformation and new practices in agricultural production and urban design. The ability to implement models using secondary information, which is easily collected at a low cost, is the most remarkable feature of this approach.
Highlights
The excessive nutrient enrichment of water ecosystems, or eutrophication, is considered to be the main water quality problem at the global scale, restricting the sustainability of environmental goods and services [1,2,3,4,5,6]
The approach that was carried out allowed the identification of the main drivers of nutrient levels in the water and to predict nitrogen and phosphorus levels in lotic systems
The tested models allowed the identification of natural and anthropogenic controls for the observed patterns, enabling them to guide the design of strategies and policies to control nonpoint sources, as well as research and action
Summary
The excessive nutrient enrichment of water ecosystems, or eutrophication, is considered to be the main water quality problem at the global scale, restricting the sustainability of environmental goods and services [1,2,3,4,5,6]. Human actions have intensified eutrophication problems through drastic modifications of exchanges between land and water ecosystems. Due to the increasing input of limiting nutrients linked to land-use transformations, such as phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) [7,8], agricultural expansion and the rising intensification of production have been impacted in recent decades [9,10,11]. Controlling the increasing nutrient inputs from point and nonpoint sources is essential to avoid the contamination of aquatic systems, and it is a first step toward rehabilitating or restoring eutrophic systems. Based on the current trends of the expansion and intensification of agriculture and population growth, nonpoint source pollution will multiply and, the impacts on water quality will increase [15,16]. Controlling the nonpoint loadings of nutrients is urgently required [7,9,17]
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