EMPIRICAL DERIVATION OF A SCALE FOR RECIDIVISM PRONENESS AMONG PAROLEES

Abstract

Abstract This study explored first the bivariate, then the multivariate, relationships between recidivism while on parole and 19 predictor variables reflective of offender or offense characteristics among 105 young adult male felons 22 months after parole from a medium-security prison. Significant bivariate relationships were found between the criterion and marital status, religious group membership, nature of the offense, number of drug-related charges associated with the ”target„ offense, and number of prior sentences. Stepwise multiple discriminant analysis yielded a ratio of 74:96 correct placements in recidivism categories on the basis of an interactive set of five multiple predictors; stepwise multiple regression produced a multiple t of .499 between two recidivism metacategories (positive vs. negative parole outcome) and an interactive set of six multiple predictors (number of drag-related charges or counts associated with the target confinement, number of prior sentences, race or ethnicity, prior ...