Abstract
This article pertains to the development of alternative ship cost modeling methodologies. Most ship cost modeling has been traditionally weight-based. This approach drives the U.S. Navy to select smaller ships that, consequently, require custom-designed shipboard components. This research project is intended to help determine if there is a more accurate way to empirically predict, forecast, and model ship cost. Current and forecasted U.S. Department of Defense budgets require identifying, modeling, and estimating the costs of shipbuilding. Information and data were obtained via publicly available sources and were collected, collated, and used in an integrated risk-based cost and schedule modeling methodology. The objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive cost modeling strategy and approach, and as such, notional data were used. Specifically, we used the Arleigh Burke Class Guided Missile Destroyer DDG 51 Flight I, Flight II, Flight IIA, and Flight III as a basis for the cost and schedule assumptions, but the modeling approach is extensible to any and all other ships within the U.S. Navy. The results will be used to develop recommendations and develop a cost modeling tool on how to implement ship cost forecasts. This example will provide a roadmap for other new ship cost modeling by the U.S. Navy, thereby improving effectiveness and increasing cost savings.
Highlights
This research project pertains to the identification, review, and potential development of existing and alternative ship cost modeling methodologies
The cost modeling tool developed in this study is intended to support development of ship cost forecasts
The proof of concept example for using this cost modeling tool included will provide a roadmap for other new ship acquisition cost modeling
Summary
This research project pertains to the identification, review, and potential development of existing and alternative ship cost modeling methodologies. Rough order of magnitude values, will be collected or generated to support this review of the cost methodologies These “data” will be generated by the researchers using archival cost data from ship maintenance projects of various destroyer (i.e., DDG) acquisitions. We will identify these extrapolations, and we will use the resulting notional data to help evaluate the efficacy of the various cost models. This approach allows readers and study sponsors to see the various types of cost models, approaches, and sample data variables that are required to run the cost models and to examine sample results, as well as review the pros and cons of each approach. The selected cost model will likely include the standard parametric models, nonparametric methods, and systems dynamics based on project management task-based schedule and cost models; semiparametric Monte Carlo simulation models; curve fitting, time-series, and cross-sectional models; nonlinear models; and so forth that have proven useful in forecasting costs in other acquisition contexts
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