Abstract

The paper deals with the navigational safety of marine traffic. It examines the problem of determining the degree of danger of traffic scheme employed in a certain water area. In addition to technical and natural factors, the nature of the psychological and emotional stress on navigators should also be taken into account when assessing the risk of a traffic pattern, which is especially important in high traffic density. Metric is suggested to be introduced as one of possible variations based the model “room-of-maneuver”. The purpose of this work is to study mathematical models and traffic danger estimation techniques which are dimed to be implemented in forward-looking intellectual traffic control systems. The measure of the emotional load is the degree and nature of the filling of the “room-of-maneuver” chart, the ratio of dangerous and safe values of the speed and course of the vessel in conditions of intensity traffic. The characteristic values of this metric for a specific marine area are an important and informative indicator that determines the navigational safety. A promising way to estimate metrics is to use data from the Automatic Identification System. The paper presents a model of traffic data available on open Internet resources, a way to bring them to a form suitable for analysis. The work is accompanied with the results of the study made on location. Estimation analysis of danger to traffic in the waters of the Tsugaru Strait and Inner Sea of Japan has been presented.

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