Emissions database development and dispersion model predictions of airborne particulate elements in the Canadian Athabasca oil sands region

Abstract

This study developed an emission inventory for 29 elements in PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 covering an area of approximately 300 by 420 km2 in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region in northern Alberta, Canada. Emission sources were aggregated into nine categories, of which the Oil Sands (OS) Sources emitted the most, followed by the Non-OS Dust sources for both fine and coarse elements over the study area. The top six fine particulate elements include Si, Ca, Al, Fe, S, and K (933, 442, 323, 269, 116, and 103 tonnes/year, respectively), the sum of which accounted for 20.5% of the total PM2.5 emissions. The top five coarse elements include Si, Ca, Al, Fe, and K (3713, 1815, 1198, 1073, and 404 tonnes/year), and their sum accounted for 29% of the total PM2.5-10 emissions. Using this emission inventory as input, the CALPUFF dispersion model simulated reasonable element concentrations in both PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 when compared to measurements collected at three sites during 2016–2017. Modeled PM10 concentrations of all elements were very close to the measurements at an industrial site with the highest ambient concentration, overestimated by 65% at another industrial site with moderate ambient concentration, and underestimated by 27% at a remote site with very low ambient concentration. Model-measurement differences of annual average concentrations were within 20% for Si, Ca, Al, Fe, Ti, Mn, and Cu in PM2.5, and were 20–50% for K, S, and Zn in PM2.5 at two sites located within the OS surface mineable area. Model-measurement differences were larger, but still within a factor of two for elements in PM2.5-10 at these two sites and for elements in both PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 at a background site.