Abstract
Abstract. Emissions of air pollutants in East Asia play an important role in the regional and global atmospheric environment. In this study we evaluated the recent emission trends of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) in East Asia, and projected their future emissions up until 2030 with six emission scenarios. The results will provide future emission projections for the modeling community of the model inter-comparison program for Asia (MICS-Asia). During 2005–2010, the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 in East Asia decreased by 15 and 12%, respectively, mainly attributable to the large-scale deployment of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) at China's power plants, and the promotion of highly efficient PM removal technologies in China's power plants and cement industry. During this period, the emissions of NOx and NMVOC increased by 25 and 15%, driven by rapid increase in the emissions from China due to inadequate control strategies. In contrast, the NOx and NMVOC emissions in East Asia except China decreased by 13–17%, mainly due to the implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards in Japan and South Korea. Under current regulations and current levels of implementation, NOx, SO2, and NMVOC emissions in East Asia are projected to increase by about one-quarter over 2010 levels by 2030, while PM2.5 emissions are expected to decrease by 7%. Assuming enforcement of new energy-saving policies, emissions of NOx, SO2, PM2.5 and NMVOC in East Asia are expected to decrease by 28, 36, 28, and 15%, respectively, compared with the baseline case. The implementation of "progressive" end-of-pipe control measures would lead to another one-third reduction of the baseline emissions of NOx, and about one-quarter reduction of SO2, PM2.5, and NMVOC. Assuming the full application of technically feasible energy-saving policies and end-of-pipe control technologies, the emissions of NOx, SO2, and PM2.5 in East Asia would account for only about one-quarter, and NMVOC for one-third, of the levels of the baseline projection. Compared with previous projections, this study projects larger reductions in NOx and SO2 emissions by considering aggressive governmental plans and standards scheduled to be implemented in the next decade, and quantifies the significant effects of detailed progressive control measures on NMVOC emissions up until 2030.
Highlights
Air pollutant emissions in East Asia contribute a large share of the global emissions. Cofala et al (2012) reported that East Asia contributes about 36, 29, and 36 % to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM2.5), respectively, much more than those of the United States and Europe
While control strategy [1] assumes that new pollution control policies would be implemented progressively in China, it has the same assumptions as control strategy [0] for the other countries for the following reasons: (1) China accounts for 88, 94, 94, 95, and 88 % of the total NOx, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emissions in East Asia in 2010; (2) Japan and South Korea already have stringent environmental policies in the base year, and the progressive control strategy for countries other than China will have negligible effect on the regional outcomes
In this study we reviewed the application status of air pollution control measures in East Asia in the last decade, evaluated the impact of control policies on the emission trends during 2005–2010, and projected future emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, and NMVOC up until 2030 under six emission scenarios based on a range of energy-saving and end-of-pipe emission control measures
Summary
Air pollutant emissions in East Asia contribute a large share of the global emissions. Cofala et al (2012) reported that East Asia contributes about 36, 29, and 36 % to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM2.5), respectively, much more than those of the United States and Europe. With the objectives of air quality improvement and mitigation of climate change, the countries of East Asia, e.g., China, Japan, and South Korea, have taken substantial measures to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions of air pollutants. These measures have often been stringent and have been rapidly enhanced. There have been a number of studies of recent and future emission trends in East Asia, they are inadequate for the development of broadly effective air quality and climate mitigation policies. We review both recent energy-saving and end-of-pipe measures in East Asia, and quantify their effects on recent emission changes
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