Emerging trends in the nuclear triad

Abstract

The purpose and aim of nuclear delivery platforms of the nuclear weapon capable states has changed considerably since their first use during World War II. These delivery platforms have not always evolved from their respective nuclear doctrines, but often due to extraneous circumstances. Hence, at times, their development has been incongruent with the prevailing doctrine. Different delivery platforms have different survival capabilities. An analysis of the strategic nuclear weapons/ platforms of nuclear capable states reveals that amongst gross reduction in weapon numbers, states are moving towards limited deterrence on to a minimalist posture (deployment of US National Missile Defence (NMD) and Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) systems may, however, see an alteration in this trend) while simultaneously seeking higher technological regimes. Most importantly, it is revealing to note that there exists a tendency to place overwhelming dependence on the survivable, second strike capable, sea‐based deterrence leg of the triad. In some countries, this will soon become the dominant leg in the near future. Thus, confirming that this leg has enormous future potential due to its high survivability index.