Emergent geopolitical risks from fishing activities and past conflicts in the Pacific Ocean

Abstract

Pacific Ocean longline fisheries support numerous international fleets targeting various species. However, global fishing activities has increased the density of vessels flagged to different countries fishing near each other. Such spatial competition increases the risk of fisheries conflicts by potentially introducing resource sharing, gear interactions, or territorial disputes. As international fisheries conflicts increase and fishing patterns evolve, it is important to know who is fishing nearby whom, and where. Enduring rivalries, or countries with historical disputes, can also contribute to a cycle of future conflicts. Here, we use network and geospatial analyses to examine which countries, country pairs, and regions in the Pacific Ocean may be at an elevated risk of fisheries conflict from spatial competition and enduring rivalries. Certain countries dominate fishing activities: Taiwan and Chinese-flagged vessels fish the largest area at 64 million km2 each (33 % greater than the next ranked country), with 7.9 and 7.2 million fishing hours respectively (nearly 2 times greater than the next ranked country). These countries and others (Japan, United States, South Korea) rank among the highest in conflict risk because of large overlapping fishing areas with enduring rivals. International diversity is most widespread in the tropical Pacific, though highest in the south Pacific, reflecting international participation in tropical bigeye and yellowfin fisheries and south albacore fisheries. High-risk regions primarily occur in the tropical Pacific across jurisdictions and similarly appear influenced by regional fisheries management. Overall, our research takes an international-level approach to study how spatial and temporal interconnectedness may influence conflict risk.