Embedding futurity in urban governance: Redevelopment schemes and the time value of money

Abstract

Whether appraising development projects or underwriting bonds to finance infrastructure, municipal governments rely on “time value of money” (TVM) techniques to discount and convert hypothetical future cash flows into objects of knowledge in the present. I analyze these calculative techniques through participant observation and interviews with professionals involved in redevelopment projects funded by Tax Increment Financing (TIF) in the Midwestern United States. I find that the TVM assumptions used in models to estimate future values help embed financialized modes of futurity into governance, leveraging the tax base for entrepreneurial urbanism. I describe the contexts in which these techniques are used and, drawing on the literature on the social construction of value, the future imaginaries they perform. I explain why the local state adopts the private sector’s low discount rates and the material effects of this mimicry: inflated estimates of future property values, which are capitalized into larger amounts of public subsidy and, possibly, higher actual values. Future values are also the basis for co-rent-seeking, whereby the state attempts to repay debt on infrastructure through the production of surplus value in land. With institutional support, the techniques and assumptions underpinning these land value capture strategies intensify development and create a reinforcing spiral of asset appreciation.