Embedding a low-carbon interregional supply chain into a recovery plan for future natural disasters

Abstract

The increasing frequency of large-scale natural disasters generates massive energy and resource demand for recovery. We developed an inoperability multiregional input–output model as a quadratic programming model with production and greenhouse gas (GHG) restrictions to develop a low-carbon recovery plan for natural disasters. In a case study of a hypothetical Nankai Trough earthquake in Japan, the model identified critical differences in the supply chains required for meeting the recovery demand with and without GHG emission constraints. The results show that the recovery demand in disaster-affected regions increases direct and indirect GHG emissions (carbon footprint for the recovery) by 32% (344 MtCO2-eq) before the disaster, but the emission increase can be offset by shifting production activities to short-distance transportation and low-carbon electric power regions. By optimizing the design of which regions can be used to secure the materials and energy needed for recovery, we found that a reduction potential of 68 MtCO2-eq and 225 MtCO2-eq can be achieved in the transportation sector and electric power sector. We concluded that low-carbon recovery design can be achieved by preemptively assigning regions to accommodate the increased production associated with disaster recovery, and prioritizing the introduction of low-carbon technologies in regions with low disaster risk.