Abstract
Our research expands earlier studies on elite human capital by widening the geographic scope and tracing the early roots of the European divergence. We present new evidence of elite numeracy in Europe since the sixth century CE. During the early medieval period, Western Europe had no advantage over the east, but the development of relative violence levels changed this. After implementing an instrumental variable strategy and a battery of robustness tests, we find a substantial relationship between elite numeracy and elite violence, and conclude that violence had a detrimental impact on human capital formation. For example, the disparities in violence between Eastern and Western Europe helped to shape the famous divergence movement via this elite numeracy mechanism and had substantial implications for the economic fortunes of each region over the following centuries.
Highlights
In this study, we assess the joint evolution of elite violence and elite numeracy across Europe over 1400 years
Higher levels of elite violence corresponded to lower elite numeracy in Eastern and South-Eastern European countries, for example, leading to Europe’s famous divergence movement
Given that lifespans and the prevalence of violence are negatively correlated— though not perfectly, as other factors influence lifespans—we argue that part of the underinvestment in elite human capital during this early period was caused by lower lifespans
Summary
We assess the joint evolution of elite violence and elite numeracy across Europe over 1400 years (including Asia Minor and the Caucasus). A wider set of related studies focused on war as the basis of a state’s capacity to tax, arguing that after wars generated taxation states, the resulting state capacity subsequently allowed for more stable development (see, for example, Dincecco 2015; O’Brien 2011; Hoffman 2015). The kingdom’s elite was affected by the fear of becoming victims to violent death themselves if the ruler was killed—murder, of a central figure, creates an atmosphere of fear in society This external effect of violence is supported by twentieth century evidence from psychology literature (OECD 2011; Baten et al 2014). There was a strong increase in elite numeracy in Italy and Iberia during the late medieval and renaissance periods, while it stagnated in South-Eastern Europe at the same time
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