Abstract
Rail transportation plays a very important role in China’s economic development. China’s train system has experienced the evolution of steam locomotives, diesel locomotives, and electric locomotives, which correspond to the consumption of coal, diesel and electricity respectively. Environmental protection has put forward requirements for energy conservation and emission reduction in rail transportation. The electrification of rails is a general trend of social development. In this process, the fuel consumption of rail transportation is experiencing the substitution of coal and oil by electricity. Therefore, a study on inter-fuel substitution in China’s rail sector is of great significance to the development of China’s rail transport system, energy conservation and emission reduction in rail transportation. We re-derived and revised the formula for inter-fuel substitution elasticity, and made a more reasonable and scientific selection of the ridge regression parameters in the econometric model. The empirical results indicate that in China’s rail sector, the substitution elasticities between coal and oil, coal and electricity, and oil and electricity are about 2.2084, 1.0628, and 0.9202, respectively. We also conducted an inter-fuel substitution scenario analysis and made relevant policy recommendations.
Published Version
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