Electric utility capacity expansion and energy production models for energy policy analysis

Abstract

This report describes electric utility capacity expansion and energy production models developed for energy policy analysis. The models use the same principles (life cycle cost minimization, least operating cost dispatching, and incorporation of outages and reserve margin) as comprehensive utility capacity planning tools, but are faster and simpler. The models were not designed for detailed utility capacity planning, but they can be used to accurately project trends on a regional level. Because they use the same principles as comprehensive utility capacity expansion planning tools, the models are more realistic than utility modules used in present policy analysis tools. They can be used to help forecast the effects energy policy options will have on future utility power generation capacity expansion trends and to help formulate a sound national energy strategy. The models make renewable energy source competition realistic by giving proper value to intermittent renewable and energy storage technologies, and by competing renewables against each other as well as against conventional technologies.