Electric Factor—A Comparison of Car Usage Profiles of Electric and Conventional Vehicles by a Probabilistic Approach

Abstract

To counteract climate change, electric vehicles are replacing vehicles with internal combustion engine on the automotive market. Therefore, electric vehicles must be accepted and used like conventional vehicles. This study aims to investigate to which extent electric vehicles are already being used like conventional vehicles. To do this, we present a supervised method where we combine usage data from conventional vehicles (from car use model based on survey data) and electric vehicles (from sensor data) in Germany and California. Based on conventional vehicles, eight car usage profiles were defined by hierarchical clustering in a previous study. Using a softmax regression, we estimate for each electric vehicle a probability of assignment for every car usage profile. Comparison of conventional and electric vehicles with a high probability reveals that electric vehicles are used similar for long-distance travel (>100 km) and different for short-distance travel (<10 km) to conventional vehicles. This implies that electric vehicles are indeed used for long-distance travel but are still not entirely used for everyday mobility. This could be because electric vehicles are not yet suitable for all trip purposes (e.g., transport of larger items).