Electoral rules and legislative turnover: Evidence from Germany's mixed electoral system

Abstract

Germany has a mixed electoral system which combines a nominal vote with simple majority in single-member districts and regional closed-list PR. Studies on the effects of electoral rules therefore find in the German system a testing ground that holds constant many contextual factors, although the possibility of mutual ‘contamination' of electoral rules prevents the measurement of ‘pure' effects. The influence that electoral rules have on the chances of re-election recently has attracted increased scholarly interest. This article analyses parliamentary turnover for all 16 German federal elections since 1949. The study reports much lower re-election prospects for German members of parliament than previous studies, but confirms earlier findings as to the impact of electoral rules on turnover: direct candidates have higher chances of being re-elected than list-candidates; being double-listed significantly increases the prospect of re-election; and parliamentary turnover increases with the length of the term.