Elections and Social Conflict in Africa, 1990–2009

Abstract

Proponents of democratization often claim that liberal institutions have a palliative effect on the level of conflict within societies. Critics, however, suggest that the instruments of democracy, especially elections, can spark political violence, particularly in weakly institutionalized settings. Using the newly available Social Conflict in Africa Dataset (SCAD), we examine the relationship between executive elections and social conflict in Africa for the period 1990-2010, using both country-months and election periods as units of analysis. We also assess conflict’s temporal relationship to election rounds, noting the escalation of violent conflict prior to an election, as well as its recession in post-election periods. These relationships are tested across democratic, autocratic, and semi-authoritarian countries. Finally, we also examine these dynamics in post-civil war environments. The empirical relationships explored by this paper will provide important insights for policy-makers and several academic literatures, including those of conflict, post-conflict peace, and democratization.