Elections and Decisions: Negotiation by School Budget Referendum

Abstract

This paper describes and analyzes the ongoing process of interaction between proposed budget increases and the margin of voter support involved in annual school budget referenda. The referendum procedures in New York State are described, and proposed budgets and referendum outcomes in 49 districts over 10 years (1971-80) are analyzed. The findings indicate that voters influence subsequently proposed budgets through the referendum process. The analysis shows a positive association between voter support and subsequently proposed budget increases, and a negative association between proposed budget increases and the voter support that they receive. A simple formal model of the ongoing democratic process of budget setting and ratification is developed based on the cobweb models of economics. Each state in the United States sets its own mechanisms for determining the expenditure levels in its public schools (Hamilton and Cohen). Most states leave the level of school funding to be determined by town governments (e.g., Connecticut) or elected school boards (e.g., Pennsylvania) or by school budget referenda (e.g., New York). The frequency, comparability, and measurable outcomes of school budget referenda make them particularly appropriate for the study of referenda and voting processes in general. There are two basic theories that have been used to understand the referendum process. The median *We thank Richard Silkman for his help in the original conceptualization of this project. We appreciate the background information provided by James Haag, James Vetro, Louis DiGiulio, and many others, and the useful comments on earlier drafts provided by Jill Suitor, Stephen Cole, John Logan, Bernard Grofman, and Howard Scarrow. We gratefully acknowledge partial support for this project from a University Award grant from the Research Foundation of the State University of New York. Address correspondence to Scott L. Feld, Department of Sociology, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11794. C 1984 The University of North Carolina Press