Abstract
Four core members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are entering a year of intense political activity as they prepare for national elections. In Indonesia and the Philippines, both of which are already plagued by economic, social and political fragility, the elections may exacerbate instability in the short-term. But while it is possible that unpredictable new leaders will be elected, it is more likely that incumbent presidents will survive and that there will be substantial policy continuity. Such continuity is more or less assured in Malaysia and Thailand.
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