El impacto del gasto público sobre la inversión privada en México (1980-2015)

Abstract

This paper's main objective is to inquire about the relationship between private investment and public expenditure and public investment in Mexico, for the period 1980-2015. Thus, in the framework of a new crisis of free market model, one of the major debates, both nationally and internationally hinges on state intervention in the economy and its possible consequences. For this purpose, was conducted an analysis of time series using an adl model, which included the variables private investment, primary public expenditure and gdp. The results dictate that both the short and long term, the total net effect of the primary public expenditure and gdp on private investment is positive and of a considerable magnitude. For that reason is that in Mexico, between 1981 and 2015, the fall of private investment as proportion of gdp may in part be explained by the fall of the various types of public expenditure (including public investment) as proportion of gdp. It can be concluded also that without merit the argument of the Mexican government to limit public spending because its crowding out effects on private investment.