Efficient inference in Bayes networks as a combinatorial optimization problem

Abstract

A number of exact algorithms have been developed in recent years to perform probabilistic inference in Bayesian belief networks. The techniques used in these algorithms are closely related to network structures, and some of them are not easy to understand and implement. We consider the problem from the combinatorial optimization point of view and state that efficient probabilistic inference in a belief network is a problem of finding an optimal factoring given a set of probability distributions. From this viewpoint, previously developed algorithms can be seen as alternative factoring strategies. In this paper, we define a combinatorial optimization problem, the optimal factoring problem, and discuss application of this problem in belief networks. We show that optimal factoring provides insight into the key elements of efficient probabilistic inference, and demonstrate simple, easily implemented algorithms with excellent performance.