Efficient border biosecurity inspection leverages superspreading to reduce biological invasion risk.

Abstract

Biological invasions are a growing threat to biodiversity, food security, and economies. Rising pressure from increased global trade requires improving border inspection efficiency. Here, we depart from the conventional consignment-by-consignment approach advocated in current inspection standards. Instead, we suggest a broader perspective: evaluating border inspection regimes based on their ability to reduce propagule pressure across entire pathways. Additionally, we demonstrate that most biosecurity pathways exhibit superspreading behavior, that is, consignments from the same pathway have varying infestation rates and contain rare right-tail events (also called overdispersion). We show that greater overdispersion leads to more pronounced diminishing returns, with consequences on the optimal allocation of sampling effort. We leverage these two insights to develop a simple and efficient border inspection regime that can significantly reduce propagule pressure compared to current standards. Our analysis revealed that consignment size is a key driver of biosecurity risk and that sampling proportional to the square root of consignment size is near optimal. In testing, our framework reduced propagule pressure by 31 to 38% compared to current standards. We also identified opportunities to further improve inspection efficiency by considering additional pathway characteristics (i.e., overdispersion parameters, zero inflation, relative risk, sampling cost, detectability) and developed solutions for these more complex scenarios. We anticipate our result will mitigate biological invasion risk with significant implications for biodiversity conservation, food security, and economiesworldwide.