Abstract
A coastal inundation simulation system was developed for the coast of the Pearl River estuary (PRE), which consists of an assimilation typhoon model and the coupled ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) + SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model. The assimilation typhoon model consists of the Holland model and the analysis products of satellite images. This is the first time an assimilation typhoon model has been implemented and tested for coastal inundation via case studies. The simulation results of the system agree well with the real measurements. Three observed typhoon paths (Hope, Nida, and Hato) were chosen to be the studied paths based on their positions relative to the PRE, China. By comparing the results of experiments with different forcing fields, we determined that the storm surge and the coastal inundation were mainly induced by wind forcing. By simulating coastal inundation for different typhoon center speeds, the Hato3 path most easily causes coastal inundation in the PRE. Moreover, the moving speed of the typhoon’s center significantly affects the coastal inundation in the PRE. The inundation becomes very serious as the movement of the typhoon center was slow down. This study provides a new reference for future predictions of coastal inundations.
Highlights
Coastal inundations are caused by typhoons, which are common in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) in the northern part of the South China Sea in summer in the northern hemisphere
The effects of meteorological precipitation are not considered in the coupled ADCIRC + SWAN model used in this study, so the OS2’s simulation results are smaller than its measurements
The contribution of the pressure forcing to the storm surge and coastal inundation is very small in the PRE
Summary
Coastal inundations are caused by typhoons, which are common in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) in the northern part of the South China Sea in summer in the northern hemisphere. In August 2017, Typhoon Hato landed at Zhuhai City, Guangdong, during a high astronomical tide, damaging 1.22 km of wharf, 240.15 km of breakwater, and 532.08 km of seawall, killing 6 people (including the missing people), and causing a direct economic loss of 784 million dollars [3]. Climate warming will probably increase the intensity of typhoons [4,5,6], and the more intense typhoons and the accelerated sea-level rise will increase the risk to coastal areas [7,8,9,10,11] If this occurs, the magnitude of the losses induced by coastal inundation will increase in the PRE. It is critical that we develop a reliable simulation for inundation, which can provide a reliable damage estimation for the larger disasters in this region
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