Effects of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature on intense tropical cyclones landfalling in China

Abstract

AbstractThis study identifies a significant positive association between tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) during preceding spring and the frequency of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall over mainland China during autumn on interannual time scales. Observational analyses show that a warm SST anomaly in TNA during spring can induce a warm SST anomaly in the western part of the western North Pacific (WNP) in subsequent autumn, through a chain of air‐sea coupled processes such as Rossby‐wave response, wind‐evaporation‐SST feedback, and westward advection of warm surface water. The physical mechanisms are verified using a suite of coupled numerical experiments performed by the state‐of‐the‐art Community Earth System Model. The warm SST anomaly in the western part of WNP is responsible for the genesis and intensification of intense TCs in situ, and the climatologically mean southeasterly steering flow is favourable for the intense TCs to make landfall over mainland China.