Effects of the North Atlantic oscillation on the probability for climatic categories of local monthly rainfall in southern Spain

Abstract

AbstractIn many regions of the world, planning agricultural and water management activities is usually done based on probabilities for seasonal or monthly rainfall, for specified intervals of values. These intervals of rainfall amounts are commonly grouped into three categories: drought, normal rainfall, and abundant rainfall. Changes in the probabilities of occurrence of rainfall amounts within these climatic rainfall categories will influence the decisions that farmers and water managers will take. This research explores the changes produced by the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) on the probability that local monthly rainfall takes in the southern Iberian Peninsula. The evolution of the NAO was divided into three phases: negative NAO, ‘normal’ NAO, and positive NAO, and local rainfall series were divided into three groups, corresponding to each NAO phase. The resulting empirical distribution functions were analysed and modelled by Gamma distributions. The results allow one to estimate the change in the probabilities of wet and dry months when a change in NAO phase is produced. The main result of this work is that changes in the probability of occurrence of climate categories of rainfall are more complex than only an increase of rainfall amount during the negative NAO phase and a decrease during the positive NAO phase. In fact, a certain asymmetry is detected in January, with more extremes linked to the negative NAO phase. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society