Abstract

We consider the influences of correlation length and aperture variability on the REV, the equivalent permeability of a fracture network, and the uncertainty in the equivalent permeability using a two-dimensional orthogonal bond percolation model. The percolation threshold, correlation length, effective conductivity, and coefficient of variation of the effective conductivity are investigated over statistically representative multiple realizations with Monte Carlo simulations in 2D fracture networks that have log-normally distributed individual fracture permeabilities. We show that although the aperture variability is large, the REV and the correlation length are similar near the percolation threshold. In contrast, when the fracture density is much larger than the percolation threshold they diverge as the aperture variability increases. We characterize the effects of correlation length and aperture variability on effective conductivity with a simple function. From the coefficient of variation analysis, the correlation length can be a criterion for evaluating which conceptual model is appropriate for describing the flow system for a given fracture network when aperture variability is sufficiently small. However, discrete fracture network models are recommended for flow simulation models because of the difficulty of REV estimation and the uncertainty in equivalent hydraulic parameters when aperture variability is large.

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