Effects of temperature rise and increase in CO2 concentration on simulated wheat yields in Europe

Abstract

A crop-growth-simulation model based on SUCROS87 was used to study effects of temperature rise and increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yields in several regions in Europe. The model simulated potential and water-limited crop production (growth with ample supply of nutrients and in the absence of damage by pests, diseases and weeds). Historic daily weather data from 13 sites in Western Europe were used as starting point. For potential production (optimal water) a 3 °C temperature rise led to a yield decline due to a shortening of the growing period on all locations. Doubling of the CO2 concentration caused an increase in yield of 40% due to higher assimilation rates. It was found that effects of higher temperature and higher CO2 concentration were nearly additive and the combination of both led to a yield increase of 1-2 ton ha-1. A very small CO2-temperature interaction was found: the effect of doubled CO2 concentration on crop yield was larger at higher temperatures. The inter-annual yield variability was hardly affected. When water was limiting crop-production effects of temperature rise and higher CO2 levels were different than for the potential production. Rise in temperature led to a smaller yield reduction, doubled CO2 concentration to a larger yield increase and combination of both led to a large yield increase (3 ton ha-1) in comparison with yields simulated for the present situation. Both rise in temperature and increase in the CO2 concentration reduced water requirements of the crop. Water shortages became smaller, leading to a reduction in inter-annual variability. It is concluded that when no major changes in precipitation pattern occur a climate change will not affect wheat yields since negative effects of higher temperatures are compensated by positive effects of CO2 enrichment.