Effects of storms on fisheries and aquaculture: An Icelandic case study on climate change adaptation

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change research on fisheries is often focused on changes in species abundance and distribution, yet the impacts of severe weather events are also important. Climate models indicate that storm frequency and intensity may increase in the North Atlantic; however, uncertainties remain and consequences in Iceland are not well studied. This research represents a first attempt to understand local to regional implications of storminess on Icelandic fisheries industries. Using an interdisciplinary approach, the analysis (1) provides regional future wind speed projections in Iceland and surroundings under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3–7.0 scenario, (2) documents current local experiences using exploratory interviews with various stakeholders in fisheries and aquaculture, and (3) explores research priorities for understanding climate-change adaptations in coastal communities. Projections show that whereas areas of the west, south, and east of Iceland may experience fewer storm days, the region north/northeast of Iceland features an increase in storm days. Potential adaptations include a flexible management system that does not punish fishers for lost time due to bad weather, cooperative market arrangements among sectors, and job security considerations for fishers and fish processing workers. Future projections are needed for other variables such as precipitation, and future socioeconomic studies should address the predictions and impacts of storminess.