Effects of socio-ecological factors on the pastoralists-farmers conflicts in Nigeria's Mid-Benue Trough

Abstract

This study examined the effects of socio-ecological factors on the pastoralists-farmers conflicts in Nigeria's Mid-Benue trough from the year 2000–2020. To understand the nexus of climate and land-use change, population density, economic development and conflicts, the study used conflict data and analyzed satellite data of Land Surface Temperature (LST) as a proxy for climate change, and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) data. Also, Night Time Light (NTL) which was a proxy for economic development, as well as population density data were used. The data were analyzed through multiple spatial analyses such as classification and reclassification to distinguish feature classes and overlays to show probable relationships. The conflict data was overlaid on the other datasets and the events that occurred within each data class were identified, while the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) were used to establish effects. Results showed that 87 percent of the conflicts occurred in areas with high LST (>30 °C) which increased by 10 percent, and 63 percent occurred in croplands which increased the most (25.7 percent). As well, 79.3 percent of the conflicts occurred in low population density areas (3–8 persons per 30 m2) and 77.3 percent in the lowest NTL radiance class (0–8 W/m2-sr). Further, the OLS and GWR analyses revealed that socio-ecological factors significantly influence the lethality of pastoralist-farmers conflicts in the Mid-Benue Trough as the three exploratory variables (climate change, economic development and population density) were statistically significant. The study recommends location-specific programs, policies and interventions to manage the conflicts based on deductions from the spatial analyses.